The Election’s Impact on the Market

The Election’s Impact on the Market

For better or for worse, the suspense is finally over and our next president has been elected. Whether you are shouting for joy or crying your eyes out, what does this all mean for the stock market? Many people are shocked that Donald Trump won. Based on concerns we’ve heard about how this election would affect the market, many people are probably just as shocked that the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped up 1.4 percent (256 points) the day after the election, and the S&P 500 rose 1.1%. A lot of people were expecting a big drop in the market because that’s exactly what happened after the past two elections. Could it be that after the past two elections the market was reacting negatively to news that our next president would be a Democrat, and that now the market is reacting positively to the election of a Republican? Don’t count on it. The market fell the day after George W. Bush was elected in 2000, and it rose the day after the re-election of Bill Clinton in 1996. Historically, there has been no predictable impact on the market based on whether a Republican or Democrat takes office in the White House. Furthermore, the day after the election gives no indication as to how the market will perform over the next 12 months. In fact, although the S&P 500 dropped 5 percent the day after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, over the course of the following 12 months the S&P 500 gained 26%. In 2012, the swing was even more dramatic, losing 3% the day after the election,...